Previewing the 2016 ALCS

The Toronto Blue Jays celebrate their walk off win over the Texas Rangers in Game 3 of the ALDS. (AP)

Regular Season:

The Blue Jays finished second to the Boston Red Sox (93-69) in the American League East with a record of 89-73. After a skid during which they lost three of their last five games, they clinched the top AL Wild Card spot on the last day of the season. Cleveland finished 2016 with a record of 94-67, and the American League Central title.

Head to head in 2016, the Indians took four of seven against the Blue Jays. In terms of runs, Toronto outscored Cleveland by a score of 38-24. This was thanks in part to a 17 run game on July 3rd.

Bats:

Toronto has hit 10 home runs this postseason. Three have come off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion, including the walk off shot against the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card Game. His 42 regular season home runs were tied for third most in Major League Baseball, and his 127 RBIs were second most. Encarnacion and fellow Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista grounded into a combined 43 double plays in 2016. As a team, they grounded into 153 total double plays, which was the most in baseball. Not being able to capitalize with runners on base could harm the Blue Jays when playing the Indians. Two of Toronto’s four postseason games have required extra innings, and Cleveland’s offense has been high powered, and has only trailed for one inning out of 27 this postseason. Just like Toronto, Cleveland’s offense has relied heavily on the home run, belting five in the ALDS against Boston.

Edge: Toronto -- Their impressive postseason numbers along with a stronger regular season at the plate, the Blue Jays have the advantage on offense.

Arms:

JA Happ was tied for the second most wins in baseball this year with 20, and Corey Kluber was not far behind with 18. The two remain close in most other measurable statistics, with the only large advantage going to Kluber, who had 227 strikeouts to Happ’s 163. Each has one start in the postseason. Kluber started Game 2 of the ALDS, going seven innings while allowing three hits and no runs. Happ also started Game 2 of his series. He allowed nine hits and one run over five innings.

Between both teams, only one starter has lasted longer than seven innings. Toronto’s Marco Estrada threw 8.1 innings of one run baseball in Game 1 against Texas. Short starts have allowed the bullpens to work early and often. Each bullpen has allowed two runs so far this postseason.

Edge: Toronto -- The overall pitching stats of both teams during the regular season were too similar to pick a winner. Toronto is given the slight advantage due to their bullpen’s ability to contain batters this postseason.

Overall Edge: Toronto

The Blue Jays may have the competitive advantage, but don’t expect them to roll over Cleveland. The Indians have found a way to win all season, and have proven themselves as true contenders by beating Boston. However, Toronto is playing in their second straight ALCS and is carrying a lot of momentum after sweeping the Rangers, a team that has been giving them problems since the 2015 postseason. They showed the ability to perform well in a hostile environment by winning both games in Arlington, and should be able to do the same in Cleveland.

Vegas is currently favoring the Blue Jays, as SportsLine has given Toronto a 53.6 percent chance to advance to the World Series.

Where to Watch:

Games can be seen on TBS with Ernie Johnson, Jr. on the call, along with Cal Ripken, Jr., and Ron Darling as his color commentators. Game 1 starts at 8:00pm EST on Friday.


All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.